CASE STUDY CHALLENGE

Probability: Aviation Safety Analysis

Airplanes are by far the safest mode of transportation when the number of transported passengers are measured against personal injuries and fatality totals.

Transportation Safety Diagram

Previous records state that the probability of an airplane crash is 0.00001%. Further, there are 95% chances that there will be survivors after a plane crash. Assume that in case of no crash, all travellers survive.

Let E1 be the event that there is a plane crash and E2 be the event that there is no crash. Let A be the event that passengers survive after the journey.

On the basis of the above information, answer the following questions:

Answer the following:

(i) Find the probability that the airplane will not crash. [1]
(ii) Find P(A | E1) + P(A | E2). [1]
(iii)

(a) Find P(A).

— OR —

(b) Find P(E2 | A).

 [2]
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